Category: Education

At The Starting Line To A Bright Future

Higher Education 2023: Mid-Year Update for 2022-23

NAPA RESEARCH                                                                                              

As the 2022-2023 academic year began, topics of confidence in higher education and workforce relevance, higher education’s costs, university admissions practices and diversity initiatives dominated the headlines. Since then, some other important themes have garnered significant attention, such as Generative Artificial Intelligence and the U.S. Supreme Court’s intention to rule on high-profile issues in higher education, such as race-conscious admissions and student debt forgiveness.

This mid-year update spotlights the more recent headliners and summarizes the other key issues previously described. (For a deeper dive, follow the references or links in the footnotes.)

Here’s the latest:

Enrollments still down generally, but some segments ticking upward: Undergraduate enrollment continued to decline by 1.1% in fall 2022 compared to 2021, but the decline has slowed to pre-pandemic rates, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) reported once last fall’s numbers were in.

Total undergraduate and graduate enrollment combined declined 1.1% over last fall, leading to a total two-year decline of 3.2% since 2020. Undergraduate enrollment declines occurred across all sectors especially among four-year institutions, with a drop of 1.6% at public four-years; 0.9% at private nonprofits; and 2.5% at private for-profits. Declines at community colleges have slowed, with only a 0.4% enrollment loss compared to fall 2021, driven by an 11.5% jump in dual-enrolled high school students.

“After two straight years of historically large losses, it is particularly troubling that numbers are still falling, especially among freshmen,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Although the decline has slowed and there are some bright spots, a path back to pre-pandemic enrollment levels is growing further out of reach.”

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How University-Related Foundations are Evolving as Higher Ed Faces a Crossroads

This mid-year update to our Fall 2022 whitepaper, How University-Related Foundations are Evolving, calls attention to a growing issue that may bring increasing challenges to university foundations – the talent and employment trends in higher education overall. AGB’s CEO Update from November noted a “meaningful realignment in higher education as an employer” and, as a result, on university-related foundations’ strategic priorities. The article, linked in full here, pointed to data in a summer 2022 CUPA-HR survey — nearly 60 percent of higher education staff members from 949 institutions were very likely, likely or somewhat likely to look for new employment opportunities in the next year. Why? The need for increased salaries, the opportunity to work remotely and the desire for a more flexible schedule. Faculty as well as faculty and staff from marginalized communities are facing additional challenges. The AGB’s assessment – “this is an alarming trend for higher education” and advised foundations to work with their institutional counterparts to influence systemic change.

As we reported at the outset of this academic year, higher education stands at a multi-lane crossroads, and the most consistent trend is the industry must change dramatically to meet the needs of students, the economy and the many stakeholders within its ecosystem. Leaders who are not prepared to adapt will fail. Innovative institutions will survive and thrive, while those that continue to look through the rearview mirror will likely be threatened by obsolescence. Now is the time to be flexible, nimble, expedient, and responsive.[1]

This assessment has significant implications for university-related foundations and advancement organizations in general. “Higher education is changing rapidly as the forces facing today’s colleges and universities become increasingly formidable. Yet within the vortex of those forces, there are many emerging opportunities for constructive and adaptable change. The acronym ‘VUCA’ describes the environment well – it is filled with Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity,” said Barbara Gellman-Danley, President of the Higher Learning Commission. “Change does not come easily, but the past few years have demonstrated the ability to rise to the occasion with innovation, transformation, and a laser focus on the students we serve.”

Institutions must continue to do more with less while consider fiscal reforms and innovative sustainability measures. Among the HLC’s major trends particularly related to institutional costs and support:

  • Equity and Access for All Learners

In 2022, gaps are still far too wide to meet the needs of all learners and whole sectors of society are left out because of cost, location, programs and the marginalization of certain populations.

  • Broken Models, New Opportunities

Institutions need to consider moving from isolation to collaboration. Change must be intentional, based on input of all stakeholders and must embrace new models of learning. Partnerships can be helpful and successful, as long as the right partnerships are formed.

  • Changing Demographics

Declines in traditional students and international student enrollment are here and likely to continue. The shift to more adult learners has been emerging for years; institutions are best positioned for success by diversifying served populations.

  • Teaching and Learning, Looking at Options Through a Kaleidoscope

The pandemic has highlighted the challenges and opportunities of remote learners. Demand for flexibility and access is growing and universities must respond while focusing on quality assurance in education and sufficient coverage in advancement staff. With significant growth of outsourcing of complete academic programs, oversight needs to remain with the university.

  • The New Credential Landscape, Multiple Choices for Learners

Non-degree programs and certificates are on the rise. Many learners are choosing alternative offerings that may or may not lead toward a degree. Expanded credentials open the door for new partnerships.

  • Financial Pressures and Enrollment

Enrollment decreases and declines in state and local funding are increasing financial stress across higher education. Institutions are building plans and new business models to assure sustainability, and tuition-driven institutions will need to expand revenue sources to strengthen financial health, while addressing public criticism of rising costs.

  • Is it Worth it? Public Perceptions About Higher Education

Public perceptions of the value of higher education are increasing the need for institutions to show successful outcomes with measurable metrics. An equity gap exists between colleges with the resources to support extensive data analytics and those without the resources to compete.

  • Post-Pandemic Mental Health, Imagining the Impact

With the pandemic uptick in reported student and faculty mental health issues, institutions have increased mental health services, but cost can be prohibitive to many colleges and universities.

  • Human Resources and the Work “Place”

Retention and attraction of employees has been greatly impacted by the pandemic; they expect flexible hours and the ability to work remotely. This has created staff and hiring shortages, like other industries, which can decrease human resources for fundraising, alumni relations and other advancement programs.

Here’s our deeper dive, picking up from the Foundation trends we identified earlier in this academic year…

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Business Gears And Success Plan

University and Independent Schools’ Strategic Plans in the News

Over the past three years, we’ve seen several universities, schools and foundations make the mistake of pausing their multi-year planning projects because of the pandemic – yet a time that multi-year thinking, and preparing for the “next future” was needed most. Yet leaders of other organizations understood that discipline around strategic planning was more vital than ever, and through virtual and in-person planning activities – which clearly required substantial extra effort for administrators, faculty and staff and stakeholders – they stayed the course with momentum to ensure focus and create clear outcomes.

Their approach was in sync with business analysts, who, during the pandemic, produced data showing that companies that use a long-term planning approach consistently outperform their industry peers. Common characteristics included linking current moves to future outcomes, retooling strategies and futures readiness through scenario planning.

Our clients – leaders of universities, independent schools, institutionally-related foundations and advancement organizations – recognize that adapting smart business thinking to their educational mission is ever more vital. We’re pleased to share several of these projects – along with their strategic plans and websites that describe their goals, objectives, process and progress. While features of their projects are custom to their own needs, what they share is a commitment to a multi-year implementation strategy with dashboards, KPIs and other measures that both track progress and enable their teams to reforecast their plans as conditions change:

University of New Mexico – UNM 2040: Opportunity Defined 

Memphis University School – Legacy Forward 2026

St. John’s School of Houston

And, as the University of Tennessee, Martin (UTM) illustrates – continuing to refresh the plan and adjust to new circumstances is essential to long-term success and viability:

UTM, which created its first five-year strategic plan, Prepare for Takeoff, in 2018, was well-positioned to build on this momentum, take into account the pandemic impacts and refresh this plan in spring 2022. Prepare for Takeoff 2.0 continues that focus for the next five years to ensure the university fulfills its mission, keeps its promise and remains viable, As the refreshed plan explains in the introduction: “Since the creation of the ‘Prepare for Takeoff’ in 2018, we have developed and implemented a strategic enrollment plan and experienced the disruptions from more than two years of Covid-19. Through the refresh process, the UT Martin community celebrated what we’ve accomplished since 2018 and explored new opportunities to pursue over the next three years.”

Open Book With Stair To Graduation Cap, The Door With Graduation Hat On Top Of Staircase, Bubble Talk With Education Icon

Higher Education 2022: Top Trends Update

As the 2022-2023 academic year began, topics of confidence in higher education and workforce relevance, higher education’s costs, university admissions practices and diversity initiatives dominate the headlines. With respect to confidence in higher ed and workforce preparation, The Chronicle of Education’s Special Report, “Building Tomorrow’s Workforce,” zeroes in on a critical theme summing up higher education’s relevance as the economy wobbles between recovery and lift-off: many employers, and not just in technology, are reconsidering longstanding requirements for a four-year degree.

The numbers tell the story:
• 95% of chief academic officers rate their institution as very/somewhat effective at preparing students for the world of work, while 11% of business leaders strongly agree that graduating students have the skills and competencies their businesses need.
• That’s quite a gap. And it’s only reinforced by a third statistic in the same data – 13% of Americans strongly agree that college graduates in this country are well-prepared for success in the workplace.

And to illustrate the challenges facing employers in today’s post-pandemic economy, the State of Maryland announced in March that it would no longer require applicants to have a degree for many state jobs and a number of companies are starting their own bootcamps and training programs while colleges are seeing their enrollments decline, the report documents. With labor shortages, understandably employers need to find smart ways to attract workers in short-term timeframes; yet coupled with the other realities, such as students’ ability to fast-track to jobs and the cost of a postsecondary education, once again higher education’s agility to respond to dynamic forces is in the spotlight.

Nonetheless, for most Americans, a college degree does pay off. According to the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, those with bachelor’s degrees earn a median of $2.8 million over their careers, 75% more than those with only a high school diploma. “This isn’t the first time Americans have questioned the value of higher education,” said Anthony P. Carnevale, a research professor and director of the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. “This rhetoric that you don’t need to go to college has been a persistent problem in the United States,” he said, and it tends to resurface during recessions.

The Chronicle report also identified seven growing sectors of opportunity for higher ed – matched to employers’ needs: (1) specialized skills for elementary and secondary education, (2) renewable and other energy fields, (3) analytical skills for the financial services industry, (4) multiple, flexible talents for health care professions, (5) evolving skills for a robust and growing manufacturing industries, (6) the shifting and broadening world of retail and (7) the technology field that is completely “bursting at the seams” with opportunity.

Admissions practices, particularly those with respect to the Ivy League colleges and universities, coupled with their impacts on the diversity of the student body, also lead the trends narratives. The most selective institutions still see strong demand. While a college education is attractive because degree-holders earn more, there is concern that some students have decided if they cannot get into the most prestigious schools that promise the most earning power, college isn’t worth it. This threatens to drive an even wider wedge between the haves and have-nots. At the same time application rates are rising substantially at almost every Ivy League school, acceptance rates are falling to all-time lows each year.
This report summarizes key trends that administrators, boards, staff, faculty and students collectively face in postsecondary institutions today.

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Female High School Teacher Standing Next To Interactive Whiteboard And Teaching Lesson To Pupils Wearing Uniform

Independent School Trends and Best Practices Update – Fall 2022

Overview

In reporting on the trends in Pre-K–12 independent school education earlier this year, Donna Orem, president of the National Association of Independent Schools (NAIS), cited several outcomes, questions and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic. With no single typical experience among the schools, she noted several common themes that can provide guidance for the future:

  • Average enrollment nose-dived early in the pandemic, then rose in 2021-22, but the picture is mixed for the years ahead. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, private school enrollments are expected to remain flat for the next decade. While this varies among schools and regions, Orem suggests the need to explore whether the potential for growth is higher if school costs were lower.
  • Student diversity is also on the rise – from 21% representation of students of color in 2010-2011 to 31% average today. Yet, children of color to age 17 represent 53.3% of the US population. “Our focus on belonging must be priorities as our communities become more diverse,” she wrote. (See more on the topic of “belonging” on page 3.)
  • The international student market appears to be falling as a result of the pandemic and the next five years might be worse or much worse according to an NAIS pop-up survey.
  • School leaders also prioritized keeping their communities together during the pandemic, but many were unsure whether they would be able to meet the increased demand for financial aid. At NAIS schools, the percentage of students on financial aid has consistently been around 23-24% since 2010, went up to 27% in 2021, but is coming back down again.
  • Other challenges and opportunities:
    • Schools accepted new ways of doing things (i.e., online school and online events) and flexed their ‘muscle of adaptability,’ while responding to the toll on mental and physical health of students and faculty. The next question is how to continue to be flexible as needs arise without feeling the pressures.
    • A deeper understanding that mental health is as important as physical health. “Schools can take the lead in becoming centers of community well-being and, in the process, improve student outcomes and more successfully recruit and retain a workforce in the future,” she counseled.
    • With widening inequalities between the haves and have-nots, and the U.S. middle class “virtually disappearing,” schools will need to affirm their purpose and their approach to this unequal society and the business model that aligns with it. If not, “the market will dictate it for us.”
    • With the dynamic demographic and social changes, “schools need to begin scenario planning now for the school market of the future, which may be unlike any ever faced.”[1]

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Unemployed Young University Woman Looking For Work Or Job After Graduation At The Post Board

Trends and Best Practices in Career Pathways at U.S. Colleges and Universities

As colleges and universities seek to become more relevant to all their constituencies and engage them in lifelong relationships, the traditional “career center” is undergoing a major redesign. Key drivers of this organizational shift are the evolving needs and expectations of the “student consumer,” the dynamic realities of the job market and the demand by business for “skills-ready” employees. Several institutions have differentiated themselves by adapting their strategies and positioning themselves for leadership in this competitive space. Like most everything else in higher education today, the solutions are being developed one institution at a time. This report is a snapshot of the general trends coupled with specific examples of different approaches.

The Context for Change

In its 2022 “Jobs Landscape” report in 2019, the World Economic Forum (WEF), an international non-profit foundation for public-private cooperation, offered a provocative assessment of the future linked to four significant trends:

  1. Increasing need for lifelong learning in a non-linear world
  2. Evolving needs and expectations of the “student consumer”
    • “Younger generations entering higher education have a completely different point of departure than previous As digital natives, they have always had technology integrated into most aspects of their lives.”
    • “One-size-fits-all education will soon be a thing of the past and individual learning paths will arguably be less defined by traditional educational structures.”
  3. Emerging technologies and business models
    • “Fast-growing innovators in educational technologies and education industry outsiders are already challenging the status quo by structurally undermining the long-established business models of higher These new actors use technology and data to introduce new, alternative approaches that better deliver on the evolving expectations of learners…inexpensive, personalized, AI-driven…”
  4. Toward a “skills over degrees” model – “While the degree still rules, by and large, we are slowly moving towards a reality with more focus on acquiring skills not degrees…Research shows that education level is only weakly correlated with job performance and, in fact, more and more companies [Google, Apple, Ernst & Young UK, IBM] are actively shifting focus away from degrees to new ways of measuring employability as a consequence of the changing nature of work.”1
  5.  

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Graduate Certificate Program Concept : Black Graduation Cap, A Diploma, White Ladder, A Small Book On A Table, Depicts An Attempt For Students To Achieve The Goal Or Gain Success In Higher Education.

New Book: Teresa Flannery’s Post-COVID Roadmap for University Marketers

For university marketing professionals – and for the presidents for whom they work – the Covid-19 pandemic changed everything.

That’s the conclusion of Dr. Teresa Flannery, who was in the midst of writing her book, How to Market a University, when the pandemic swept over the world and forced instantaneous change on higher education.

“The pandemic has made apparent the value of the work that we do on literally a daily, almost hourly, basis,” she says. “The value of our work has never been greater, [particularly for] the strategic communications area.”

She adds that the pandemic underscored the importance of the marketing tools necessary “in order to do this well, like enterprise customer relations management that makes all of our communications with stakeholders about the pandemic more efficient, accurate and measurable.” Read more >

Young Students With Face Mask In Casual Clothes Standing In Front Of A Grey Wall Background New Normal Concept With People Going To School

Emerging from COVID-19: The new (hybrid) workplace – and campus?

As more arms get vaccinated and society creaks open its doors to a semblance of normalcy, workers and organizations are considering how, when and if they should return to their shuttered offices and classrooms.

First, there’s no one answer, just as there’s no one type of industry. Clearly, many professions have successfully shifted to a blend of virtual and in-office work to provide for customers; telemedicine being a primary example. Many restaurants, unable to serve customers inside, quickly ramped up online ordering and delivery services to try and weather the emergency until they can safely reopen.

But coaxing office workers back into the office is giving managers some pause as they weigh the advantages of continuing remote work and reducing real estate overhead. These trends have only strengthened the broader trend toward remote work and the rethinking of office space and office real estate as we know it.  The conversation now is moving in the direction of providing a hybrid workplace — one that provides the flexibility and security of virtual work, while preserving the need for office space to safely collaborate, launch new initiatives and mentor coworkers.

This has substantial implications for space utilization in all industries. For our higher education and independent school clients, however, is the era of fundraising campaigns and bond financing for new buildings in the rear view mirror? Such potentially multi-layered reassessment may have widespread impacts on educational costs, budgets and marketing in a post-COVID environment. Read more >

Customer Experience Drawn On Blue Wall.

Platform Business Models – Considerations for Organizational Redesign

Implementing a platform business model, in contrast to a vertically integrated organization, centers on a dynamic platform directed at the customer experience. This has impacts on the entire organization with respect to key functions (such as sales, marketing, communications, IT and analytics) as well as their alignment and governance.

While “digital” is often the reason that organizations consider a platform model, there is not a one-size-fits-all solution nor is it as simple as creating a single unit focused on digital; rather a comprehensive digital strategy is necessary to support the core strategic drivers of the business – and position the organization to respond to business opportunities and build the teams to respond with digital (and other) tools. Questions include: Will the impact of digital be focused on overall IT integration? On systems and software that provide deeper analytics for product development and sales? On marketing and communications? On social media?

Agile companies have more fluid structures in which day-to-day work is organized in smaller teams that cut across business lines and market segments. The old view of “dotted lines” begins to fade as talent and tools are reallocated according to the business need. Digital technologies facilitate a more customized tactical approach to customers as part of a larger strategy. From both IT and marketing/communications perspectives, it’s vital to understand the “whole customer” (the strategy) and what tools (the tactics) are most important to engage them.

Here’s how to design your organization for the customer experience…

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Mission Market

Higher Education 2020: Top Trends Overview

As U.S. higher education starts a new decade, several critical issues are driving decision making at most colleges and universities. And, as we wrote four years ago in our white paper, Public Higher Education 2016: Overview of Top Issues, colleges and universities continue to try to solve these issues one institution at a time. A promising outcome is that this pressure is forcing administrative and academic leadership to focus on priorities and differentiation, but the progress and payoffs are mixed and there is no clear path forward in terms of “one size fits all.” The following are the top trends The Napa Group believes will greatly influence higher education in 2020 and beyond.

Six big issues and their impacts on higher ed are described here…

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